Coming to terms with stagflation

Kelvin Tyler • August 2, 2022

First, we had to brush up our understanding of inflation and what it means for our hip pocket and our investments. Now the term stagflation is being thrown into the economic mix.

For those with long memories, stagflation is a reminder of the late 1970s and early 1980s when the world economy fell into what then-Treasurer Paul Keating called “the recession we had to have”.

The word has raised its head again with the World Bank warning that there is a rising risk of stagflation. i  This took the wind out of the sails of global sharemarkets, with Australian shares down 10 per cent in the year to June, although they have since started to show signs of recovery. ii

Despite the term stagflation re-entering conversation, the general belief is that things will not get as bad as last century but they are still likely to be challenging.

So, what is stagflation? Basically, it’s the combination of rising inflation, high unemployment, and weak economic growth. When all three happen at the same time, then the economy and living standards struggle. So let’s look at each of these three markers in turn.

Rising inflation

The definition of inflation is a general increase in prices and a fall in the purchasing value of money.

Certainly, we are experiencing rising inflation right now. It’s currently running at just over 6 per cent in Australia. The war in Ukraine took its toll on commodity prices globally which is contributing to the hike. While prices are off their highs, they are still hurting.

On the local front, floods on the east coast of Australia have damaged crops which will also push inflation higher.

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has pointed to a top inflation rate of about 7 per cent in this current economic cycle which is well above the 2-3 per cent inflation target the Reserve Bank uses in setting monetary policy.

Slowdown in economic growth

Looking next at economic growth, and this is certainly slowing.

The OECD cut its outlook for global economic growth from 4.5 per cent in 2021 to 3 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent in 2023. In Australia, growth is expected to fall from 4.8 per cent to 3.5 per cent this year and 2.1 per cent in 2023. iii

The definition of economic growth refers to the size of a country’s economy over time. It’s measured in real and nominal terms. Nominal refers to the increase in the dollar value of production over time; real economic growth just looks at the volume produced. Real growth is the figure generally used. iv

Low unemployment

Unemployment, meanwhile, is at the lowest levels in Australia since 1974 at 3.9 per cent. v  But despite the low unemployment rate, wage growth is less than half that of inflation, so it is hard to keep pace with the rising prices.

Looking at the three criteria for stagflation, unemployment in Australia is less than 4 per cent, inflation is running at just over 6 per cent and GDP growth is 3.3 per cent. At these levels it seems more likely, but far from certain, that we will experience a recession rather than stagflation. Recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Stagflation would be a bigger problem than a severe recession because the traditional ways to deal with it are either increased government spending or cutting interest rates. Unfortunately, these solutions are both inflationary and therefore not good tools for the current economic environment.

Big mortgages put brake on rate rises

Back in the 1970s and 1980s, interest rates hit 18 per cent as the Reserve Bank struggled to contain inflation. With mortgages at their current size, increased rates will start hurting much sooner so this will put a brake on inflation well before rates reach double digit levels.

The general view is that mortgage rates will peak at just over the 5 per cent mark. vi

If you would like to discuss your overall financial position in these uncertain times, then call us.

Do you know how your super is performing?

By Nikki Ashurst • November 2, 2026
Many Australians don't know how their super fund has performed or what it invests in. Are you one of them? Here's what to check and why it matters. Do you know how your super fund performed over the last two years? Many Australians don’t and are working towards their financial future without fully understanding one of their most important assets and without a clear plan for how their super may support them in retirement. That's not surprising, as many people view super as something that should run quietly in the background while they're busy with careers, families and everything else that life throws at them. But when you’re not sure what’s happening behind your balance, it’s harder to know whether you’re on track, whether your current approach reflects your goals or what opportunities might be available to help you make the most of what you’ve built so far. Your super isn't sitting in an account, it's invested Super is invested by a fund on your behalf across a mix of assets, with those investments working to grow your balance over time. Those include: Shares Ownership in Australian and international publicly listed companies. Their value can rise and fall, sometimes substantially over short periods but shares can provide capital growth over the long term. Property and infrastructure Real assets like office buildings, shopping centres, airports and energy networks. They can produce income and don't always behave in the same way as share markets, helping diversify investment holdings. Fixed interest and bonds Lending to governments and companies in return for interest. They can provide regular income and be steadier than shares, although returns and risk vary depending on the investment. Cash Generally, the most stable and lowest risk investment type. It can provide stability and faster access to money but typically offers lower longer term return potential. The investment option you choose determines the mix of assets held in your super based on your risk appetite. Most super funds offer options from conservative to high growth. If you’re young, a growth option with a higher exposure to growth assets like shares could offer higher returns over time – but it also comes with higher risk. As retirement nears, you might want to consider a more conservative approach with more defensive assets, like bonds for example to protect your savings. If you've never made a choice, you're probably in your fund's default option, which is designed to suit a broad membership. It’s worth knowing whether the mix you're in matches your circumstances and goals, including how far you are from retirement. Why performance alone is not a true comparison If you're thinking about how your super compares, returns are often where people start. The trouble is that a return figure means nothing without context: What it's being compared to Growth and conservative options invest differently and with different levels of risk. Compare like with like or the comparison may not be genuine. The comparison period A single year can be heavily influenced by short term market conditions. Super is measured in decades, so five, seven and ten year returns tell you far more about whether a fund is consistently doing its job, albeit not a predictor of future performance. Fees and tax Published returns should reflect investment fees, costs and tax but administration fees may be charged separately from your balance. Two funds quoting the same return can leave you in meaningfully different places once all fees are accounted for. Then there are the things that returns can't show you at all. For example, what insurance is attached to your account and what it's costing you, whether the fund offers guidance, tools and advice or simply sends a statement once a year. Another consideration maybe the level of support available when you need it. When comparing funds, it's worth looking at the full picture, including performance, fees, investment options, retirement support and member benefits. What today’s decisions mean tomorrow To understand how your super stacks up, start here: Find your investment option It's on your annual statement and in your online account. Look at what's in it Your fund publishes the asset allocation (shares, cash etc.) for each investment option. Check the long-term return for that option Focus on five and ten year returns, not just last year and compare them with equivalent options. Understand the total cost Add together administration fees, investment fees and insurance premiums as an annual dollar figure. Comparing super is about working out which option will perform best for you. Before you jump in, it’s worth understanding what's behind the numbers so you can make decisions based on more than a headline return. Knowing where you stand is the first step A super balance tells you where you are today. Understanding how your super is invested, how it compares and whether it's aligned with your goals helps show whether you're heading in the right direction. Source: MLC The information in this article does not take into account your objectives, needs and circumstances. We recommend that you obtain investment and taxation advice specific to your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs before making any investment decision or acting on any of the information contained in this document. Subject to law, Capstone Financial Planning nor their directors, employees or authorised representatives gives any representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information; or accepts any responsibility for any person acting, or refraining from acting, on the basis of the information contained in this document. Principal Wealth Management Pty Ltd trading as BMO Financial Solutions ABN 53 109 336 601 is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 277821) of Capstone Financial Planning Pty Ltd ABN 24 093 733 969 Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL) No. 223135.

The SMSF landscape is changing

By Jude Schofield • October 7, 2026
More Australians are choosing to take direct control of their retirement savings by establishing a self-managed super fund (SMSF) and according to the SMSF Association, Aussies now see their super as an important part of building and managing their overall wealth.